Saturday, September 27, 2014

Long or Short?

 

http://snalaska.com/cot/current/charts/SP.png

After you look at this commitment of traders, who do you think is right: The Hedge Funds and Small Investors or the Commercials?

Pattern-wise, I believe equities have positioned themselves for a scary plunge next week.  Psychology is turning bearish rapidly.  The junk-to-treasuries spread is hitting new highs—some one is taking risk off.  A darkening mood and a 1-2, 1-2 pattern down are usually preludes to a devastating 3 of 3 down.  Should happen soon.  If I’m right, this will kickoff a very large bear market.  I doubt the FED sees this coming, so the bulls will be on their own for awhile.  If the bulls can’t hold this off, the FED will be too late to help.  Interesting week coming up.  GL

Thursday, September 25, 2014

!ADRLITOT--A cliff hanger?

Which way will you go?  Cramer says buying opportunities abound!  Will the mob go his way?  It's a moment to respect--up or down?  For me, that decision was made as I culled all the articles that fill this blog--DOWN.  If not tomorrow, soon--very soon.  The market accommodates no man; however, the market--at this moment--has not many options because so many things have deteriorated over the last year.  We are--I believe--in a third wave down, which means minimally the Dow should drop to 16,855.  After that, look for at least 16,700, then 15,000.  The rot of fiscal and monetary policy--to say nothing of GROWTH and those other wildly idealistic expectations--are beginning to be noticed as they float up to the surface of a grimy post-industrial river, like dead bodies.  GL   

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5 U.S. Banks Each Have More Than 40 Trillion Dollars In Exposure To Derivatives

5 U.S. Banks Each Have More Than 40 Trillion Dollars In Exposure To Derivatives

“Economic Recovery” for the U.S. Middle Class: Significantly Less Purchasing Power than Before the 2008 Financial Crisis | InvestmentWatch

 

“Economic Recovery” for the U.S. Middle Class: Significantly Less Purchasing Power than Before the 2008 Financial Crisis | InvestmentWatch

Wednesday, September 24, 2014

!10ADRNYA--No Breadth

This snapback rally has no breadth, which means to me it really is a small wave 2 correction that will vanish when main trend resumes.  GL

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XLP:XLY--Rising Conservatism

When consumers (about 70% of economy) get conservative, you don't need a poll to gauge their mood, and that mood is NOT conducive to, alas, growth, the great Keynesian pie somewhere in the sky.  Can you hear the music: Where have all the dollars gone?  Oh, when will they learn?  GL

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$BDI--Not looking strong

If $BDI represents some idea of global trade, then we are all in trouble.

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UGAZ--Triple Bottom?

UGAZ has made three HIGHER lows this month, and now there are reports of another polar vortex forming over the artic--I'm a buyer.  GL

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$BPCOMPQ--A chart for bulls?

Check out this chart from StockCharts.com for $BPCOMPQ

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Hussman Funds - Weekly Market Comment: The Ponzi Economy - September 22, 2014

 

Hussman Funds - Weekly Market Comment: The Ponzi Economy - September 22, 2014

If the Dollar continues to rise?


Waning German confidence puts pressure on ECB, European stocks rise - MarketWatch

 

Waning German confidence puts pressure on ECB, European stocks rise - MarketWatch

The Fed’s Credit Channel Is Broken And Its Bathtub Economics Has Failed | David Stockman's Contra Corner

 

The Fed’s Credit Channel Is Broken And Its Bathtub Economics Has Failed | David Stockman's Contra Corner

Listen to the slowing US economy, hear echoes of Japan | InvestmentWatch

 

Listen to the slowing US economy, hear echoes of Japan | InvestmentWatch

BofA Merrill Lynch US High Yield Master II Effective Yield© - FRED - St. Louis Fed

Every time I go away, the market tanks--I should stay away. As you can see the junk bond gap is widening, and we have a new high. This is, I believe, a strong clue to where the rest of the equity market will be going soon. On the 15 minute chart the major indexes have made 5 waves down. Today we are correcting that impulse. Once this is over, down we go again. This will become the pattern, and it will become noticeable more and more to investors. For those who believe the FED will rescue them, you only have to watch the widening gap of junk bonds to see that risk is coming OFF. If it is not obvious yet, soon we will see that the FED has discredited itself--morally and literally. In a week or so, rates will resume their rise, and within a month or so, the ten year bond will approach and go over 3%. Keep your eye on the gap.

 

BofA Merrill Lynch US High Yield Master II Effective Yield© - FRED - St. Louis Fed