Tuesday, October 21, 2014

Counter-trend Rally Over?

With every one high on today's rally, my gut says it's about over.  Sorry happy people.  The market has done its job--made you complacent again.  With many major indexes popping above their 200 DMA, it interesting to note that the total market cumulative Advance-Decline Ratio did not get over its 200 DMA.  Somebody is not participating.  With the Dow getting close to its 62% retracement of previous wave and every body wild about the rally, I think it's time for new lows, in a wave 5 drop, which, to be sure, will be followed by a big rally, which will be followed by new lows.  GL

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Interview: “We’re seeing deflating assets in a whole host of markets”

 

Interview: “We’re seeing deflating assets in a whole host of markets”

Invixtus

 

Invixtus

The Canary In Big Blue’s Mainframe: Why IBM’s Q3 Bust Marks A Turning Point | David Stockman's Contra Corner

 

The Canary In Big Blue’s Mainframe: Why IBM’s Q3 Bust Marks A Turning Point | David Stockman's Contra Corner

John Hussman: On The Tendency Of Large Market Losses To Occur In Succession | Seeking Alpha

 

John Hussman: On The Tendency Of Large Market Losses To Occur In Succession | Seeking Alpha

Friday, October 17, 2014

$RUT--Next wave down will be 5th of primary 1

The next wave down in stock market--to start next week--will be final wave for first leg down of this bear market.  Expect a large retracement after that--then a resumption of bear.  RUT is leading way down--as it has been for months.  Still looking for 15,000 or so.  Looking for TVIX to stop somewhere between 7.20 and 8.35, depends how crazy it gets.  Maybe a little more on Monday, but after that it's down.  GL

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NG: Commercials get more bullish

 

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$RUT--Is RUT the leader?

As everyone jumps for joy over this relief rally, RUT has been making nothing but new daily lows all morning.  Time to buy TVIX.  GL

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Nine Ominous Signals That Say—–Don’t Buy The Dip! | David Stockman's Contra Corner

 

Nine Ominous Signals That Say—–Don’t Buy The Dip! | David Stockman's Contra Corner

Dennis Gartman: Stay In Cash And Short-Term Bonds

 

Dennis Gartman: Stay In Cash And Short-Term Bonds

S&P 500 And Volatility In 2007 Vs. 2014 (Part II)

 

S&P 500 And Volatility In 2007 Vs. 2014 (Part II)

Wednesday, October 15, 2014

It’s the momentum of the economic data that’s worrisome - MarketWatch

 

It’s the momentum of the economic data that’s worrisome - MarketWatch

European stocks slip into correction amid ‘perfect storm’ - MarketWatch

 

European stocks slip into correction amid ‘perfect storm’ - MarketWatch

Michael Gayed: Why Large Caps Could Collapse

Michael Gayed: Why Large Caps Could Collapse

BofA Merrill Lynch US High Yield Master II Effective Yield© - FRED - St. Louis Fed

The junk/treasury spread is rising again.

BofA Merrill Lynch US High Yield Master II Effective Yield© - FRED - St. Louis Fed

$NDX--200 DMA Penetrated

As dip buyers reset oscillators, more technical damage occurs.  NDX was last hold out of 200 DMA penetration.  Looking 1750 S&P.  GL

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TMV has bottomed


Panic buying in Treasurys - 10-year yield plunges to 2% • 9:35 AM
Stephen Alpher, SA News Editor
• No need to do a double-take. The 10-year Treasury yield is now lower by 20 basis points to 2.00%, with clearly something more at work than a couple of weak economic reports.
• Germany goes full Japan, with 10-year Bund yields lower by nine basis points to 0.71%, and U.K. 10-year Gilt yields are down 16 bps to 1.98%.
• Previously moving lower in lockstep with Germany, peripheral yields don't keep up today. Spanish 10-years are up four bps to 2.14% and Italy's are up 14 basis points to 2.45%.

$INDU--15,372 next?

Dip buyers are about to have their heads handed to them.  GL

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This Time Is Different—–For The First Time In 25-Years The Wall Street Gamblers Are Home Alone | David Stockman's Contra Corner

 

This Time Is Different—–For The First Time In 25-Years The Wall Street Gamblers Are Home Alone | David Stockman's Contra Corner

Sterne Agee's Carter Worth: Stock Market Correction Is Not Over

 

Sterne Agee's Carter Worth: Stock Market Correction Is Not Over

Tuesday, October 14, 2014

$NDX--Waiting for NDX to break 200 DMA

While we wait for NDX to break 200 DMA, you have to ask yourself: How many bears got shaken not stirred today--what a bartender the market is!

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$INDU--Waste of money

Those bulls are tenacious.  GL

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Too many put buyers

Once this silly rally disillusions these put buyers, we can go back down.  GL

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Technical Rot

This is an example of technical rot.  GL

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Is The Market Setting Up For A Big Fall? | Seeking Alpha

 

Is The Market Setting Up For A Big Fall? | Seeking Alpha

!ARMS55NYA--Bouncing off the 55DMA ARMS

This rally is nothing but a hopeful bullish reaction to a rising 55 DMA ARMS, which just hit its 200 DMA--Dead Bull Market Walking.  GL

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John Hussman: Air-Pockets, Free-Falls And Crashes | Seeking Alpha

 

John Hussman: Air-Pockets, Free-Falls And Crashes | Seeking Alpha

$INDU--Start with a Rally, End with a Swoon

With technical rot all over and inchoate deflation in Europe, where can the market realistically go?  A bounce off of oversold.  Sell this rally.  GL

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TMV anybody?


Bond yields tumble as market reopens; Long bond below 3% • 7:34 AM
Stephen Alpher, SA News Editor
• The 10-year Treasury yield falls all the way to 2.19% in morning action, a fresh 16-month low, and the 30-year yield has fallen below 3%.
• Just for perspective, the yield on one of the world's more hated asset classes (the 10-year Treasury) stood at around 3% at the start of the year. The TLT ETF has gained 18.6% YTD and is up another 0.9% premarket.
• At work in addition to sliding equity markets are rising deflation fears across the pond - the German 10-year Bund yield slides five basis points to a fresh all-time record low of 0.80%, and 10-year Gilt yields are down eight basis points to 2.09% amid weak CPI numbers.

Deflation Fears Grow


CPI figures from across the EU have provided further evidence of the danger that deflation poses to the region. French CPI dropped 0.4% on month in September from +0.5% in August and Italian CPI slipped 0.4%, as in August. Spanish CPI held steady at +0.2% on month but was -0.2% on year. In the U.K., annual inflation dropped to a five-year low of 1.2% from 1.5%.

Nikkei Slumps


Japanese shares lead Asian stocks lower • 2:58 AM
Yigal Grayeff, SA News Editor
• The Nikkei slumps 2.4% as investors return to work following a long weekend in Japan during which U.S. stocks tumbled on Friday and yesterday. The Japanese index's loss was the fifth in a row.
• Elsewhere in Asia, Hong Kong -0.1%, China -0.5%, India -0.2%.
• There doesn't seem to have been a major new catalyst for the falls, with ongoing concern about the world economy appearing to be what is preoccupying markets.

ZEW Disappoints


German investor sentiment turns negative • 5:21 AM
Yigal Grayeff, SA News Editor
• The German ZEW survey of investor confidence has unexpectedly dropped into negative territory for the first time in almost two years, tumbling to -3.6 in October from 6.9 in September and missing expectations of 1.
• The current situation print has slumped to 3.2 from 25.4, falling short of consensus of 18.
• Sentiment for the eurozone plunged to 4.1 from 14.2 and missed forecasts of 7.1.
• "Geopolitical tensions and the weak economic development in some parts of the Eurozone, which is falling short of previous expectations, are a source of persistent uncertainty," says ZEW President Professor Clemens Fuest. "These factors are tarnishing growth expectations in Germany. Disappointing figures concerning incoming orders, industrial production, and foreign trade have likely contributed to the growing pessimism among financial market experts." (PR)
• The DAX is -0.5% and the euro is -0.8% at $1.2653.