Monday, September 8, 2014
Friday, September 5, 2014
Today’s Jobs Report And The Cult Of Central Banking: Counting Angels On The Head Of A Pin While Main Street Flounders | David Stockman's Contra Corner
Thursday, September 4, 2014
Tuesday, August 26, 2014
Excerpt from Money and Markets by Jon Markman
CM analysts note that the New York Fed's Household Debt and Credit Report shows that consumer debt fell at a $72 billion annual rate in the second quarter, following three quarters of modest debt growth. The decline was driven by a whopping $328 billion decline in mortgage debt. The analysts conclude that consumers in the current cycle are reluctant to amass debt and are increasingly sensitive to the cost of credit. As a share of disposable personal income, consumer debt has dropped to 89.7 percent, down from 115 percent just six years ago.
The CM analysts observe that since nominal retail sales in July were flat month over month and real sales (i.e. inflation adjusted) were down 0.1 percent, no one should look to the consumer as the driver of new growth for the U.S. economy. Household spending is being restrained by consumers' reluctance to lower their savings rate and borrow as excessively as they did in the past.
The analysts note that during the last expansion, 2003-07, total consumer debt increased $1.079 trillion per year. So far in this expansion, consumer debt has declined $156 billion per year!
Monday, August 25, 2014
We all remember "Waiting for Godot"--and we know how that ends. The new play is "Waiting for Growth"--Green Shoots Bernanke was major actor in Part One: QE, etc. Now we are in Part TWO and No Recipe Yellin is the major actor. Don't hold your breathe--we knows how this ends. The USA has lost more companies than it created since 2008--that will cause slack in labor market. Also, for every dollar od debt we create 3 cents of growth--this is nothing short of insane. GL
Sunday, August 24, 2014
Some Fed Presidents Think The FOMC Will Raise Rates In Early 2015; Quotes From Janet Yellen's Jackson Hole Speech | Distressed Volatility